First-Year Frustrations

How much do we learn when a rookie struggles?

I always enjoy the short conversations that ESPN periodically posts between Kevin Pelton and their draft analysts (previously Chad Ford, now Jonathan Givony and/or Mike Schmitz). Reading these discussions provides a comparison of two informed analysts approaching the questions from different perspectives. The latest conversation between Pelton and Schmitz was a great example of this, as the two of them reviewed the latest draft class, and in the process raised a question in my mind that I think about a lot this time of year: how much should rookie season performance impact our projections of a player’s future?

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